OPINION
As 2026 approaches, Tsering Passang* argues why resolving the China–Tibet conflict before it is too late serves global peace, regional stability, and justice, and sees a role for India, amid a weakening of Western support for Tibet and what he sees as a rising China’s dangerous miscalculation that time and demographics will dissolve the Tibetan question.
As we approach 2026, the world is in the midst of a profound geopolitical recalibration that offers little comfort to stateless nations and persecuted peoples like Tibetans, Uyghurs, and Hong Kongers. China’s rise has been neither sudden nor accidental. It is the result of decades of strategic patience, economic integration, and the West’s willingness to prioritise business over values. For those of us who live under, or in exile because of, Beijing’s rule, this reality demands clarity rather than illusion.
China today wields unprecedented influence across the Global South, where infrastructure projects, loans, and political backing have translated into diplomatic loyalty. Western economies, despite growing unease, remain deeply reliant on Chinese manufacturing, supply chains, and markets. There is no serious sign of economic decoupling. As a result, the moral space for championing human rights in Tibet, East Turkestan (Xinjiang), or Hong Kong has narrowed considerably. Our struggles are no longer central to global agendas; they are often treated as inconvenient footnotes to economic diplomacy.
Recent developments in Washington, DC, underscore this troubling shift. The change in administration in January 2025 has coincided with the closure or scaling back of critical broadcasting platforms such as Radio Free Asia and Voice of America’s Tibetan-language services – lifelines that for decades transmitted independent news, cultural programming, and uncensored analysis into Tibet. At a time when information inside Tibet is tightly controlled and dissent criminalised, the loss of these voices is deeply unfortunate. It weakens not only Tibetans’ access to truth but also the international community’s ability to understand realities on the ground.
Compounding this challenge, reductions in annual US funding have begun to affect the Tibetan exile community’s sustainability. Capacity-building initiatives, educational programmes, leadership training, and grassroots advocacy – essential to maintaining a resilient, non-violent freedom movement – now face growing uncertainty. These investments were never acts of charity; they were commitments to democratic values, pluralism, and peaceful conflict resolution. Their erosion risks creating a vacuum that benefits repression, not stability.
For Tibetans, this moment is especially poignant. His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama, who turned 90 this year, remains the single most credible bridge between Tibetans and the Chinese state. His Middle Way Approach – seeking genuine autonomy within the framework of the People’s Republic of China – has been consistently realistic, pragmatic, and non-violent. Yet Beijing has chosen to sideline him, betting that time and demographics will dissolve the Tibetan question. This is a dangerous miscalculation. Ignoring the Dalai Lama does not end the conflict; it merely postpones it to a far more unstable and unpredictable future.
The same logic applies to Uyghurs and Hong Kong. In Xinjiang, the scale and sophistication of repression have shocked global consciences but failed to produce decisive collective action. In Hong Kong, the National Security Law has effectively extinguished the promise of “one country, two systems,” even as the world looks on with resignation. Taiwan now stands as the most visible flashpoint, with China’s increased military exercises signalling that coercion is no longer hypothetical. A takeover of Taiwan would not only redraw Asia’s security architecture but would extinguish any remaining hope that Beijing can be persuaded through restraint alone.
And yet, opportunities – however limited – do exist.
India occupies a unique and consequential position in this landscape. Relations between New Delhi and Beijing may appear eased for now, but deep distrust persists, particularly along the unresolved border in Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims as “Southern Tibet.” The McMahon Line, agreed upon in the 1914 Simla Convention signed between British India and Tibet, remains the de facto boundary, yet Beijing continues to reject its legitimacy. Dozens of rounds of border talks have yielded little progress. This is not merely a territorial dispute; it is inseparable from Tibet’s unresolved political status.
India has long hosted the Tibetan government-in-exile and the Dalai Lama himself. With this moral responsibility comes strategic opportunity. By raising the Tibet issue on global forums – not as an act of hostility, but as a pursuit of truth, reconciliation, and justice – India can help frame a solution that benefits all stakeholders. Resolving the China–Tibet conflict while the Dalai Lama is still with us would remove a major source of regional tension, stabilise the Himalayan frontier, and offer Beijing a dignified pathway toward lasting peace.
Such an approach need not be confrontational. India can work with friends and allies to encourage Beijing to take a realistic and forward-looking approach rooted in autonomy, cultural preservation, and religious freedom. The Dalai Lama’s moral authority – trusted by Tibetans and respected worldwide – remains an asset no other figure can replace. Ignoring this opportunity risks leaving behind a vacuum filled by resentment, radicalisation, and instability.
As we look ahead to 2026, Tibetans harbour no illusions of quick victories. But history reminds us that even the most powerful states cannot indefinitely suppress the aspirations of a people without consequence. The question is whether the international community – and particularly India and the United States – will choose foresight over fear. Continued support for Tibetan institutions, independent media, education, and dialogue is not symbolic; it is strategic.
Time is not infinite. For Tibet, for China, and for the region, the moment to act is now – while wisdom, dialogue, and reconciliation are still possible.
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Tsering Passang* is the founder-chair of the Global Alliance for Tibet & Persecuted Minorities, based in London. He is a prominent Tibetan human rights advocate who works internationally to advance justice, freedom, and peaceful resolution for Tibetans and other persecuted communities under authoritarian rule. Tsering’s blog: www.Tsamtruk.com