(TibetanReview.net, Jul11’26) – It is not just Tibetans and India but also China’s own scientists that are seriously concerned about the world’s largest hydropower dam that is being built, reportedly at a speeded up pace in recent times, towards the end of the run of the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet’s Metog County, just 50km before it enters India. Chinese geologists have determined that an active fault line directly beneath the project poses a threat to the mega-dam, reported scmp.com Jul 9, citing a paper published last month in the Chinese-language journal Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology.
The scientists have not called for the project to be scrapped, although this would be the best sensible recommendation, as this was obviously beyond their term of reference. They have, instead, called for strengthened safeguard measures to hopefully minimise the risks.
The scientists have said a fracture in the Earth’s crust in the eastern Himalayan region would significantly affect the integrity of the massive hydropower project’s construction.
In the paper, which was published under the supervision of the state-owned China Geological Survey, the team of Chinese scientists has urged engineers to strengthen slope stability and implement retaining protections to mitigate the risk of landslides and collapses.
The study was stated to have been conducted by geologists from the Chengdu University of Technology, the Civil-Military Integration Centre of the China Geological Survey, and the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Natural Resources Observation and Research Station.
“The Paizhen Fault, which has been highly active since the [Ice Age], will have a major impact on the structural stability and construction of nearby structures, including dams, roads, bridges and tunnels, as well as the reservoir area,” the researchers were stated to have written.
The fact that the active fault had fractured the surrounding rocks and altered their mechanical properties “makes the foundation bearing capacity and structural stability of nearby engineering projects more susceptible to damage,” they were stated to have written.
And “the Paizhen area is located within the reservoir area of the Yarlung Tsangpo downstream hydropower station.”
The terrain has a “loose structure and weak cohesion”, that “after long-term immersion and under the influence of fault activity and earthquakes, instability of the slopes on both sides of the reservoir area can be extremely easily triggered,” they were further stated to have warned.
Noting that the Himalayan seismic belt has the strongest and most frequent earthquakes in “China” and neighbouring regions, the team has further warned that a strong seismic activity zone had formed along the Yarlung Tsangpo.
Besides, the Paizhen Fault is stated to be part of a network of tectonic breaks in the eastern Himalayan region, an area defined by collisions between the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates.
The researchers have also pointed to the magnitude 6.9 earthquake in Milin, Tibet, in 2017, which occurred at the northern end of the fault line, as evidence of its modern seismic potential.
The dam, officially known as the Medog Hydropower Station, is the largest of its kind in the world, with an estimated annual capacity of 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity – three times that of the Three Gorges Dam, already the world’s largest – and expected to cost around $167 billion (approx. 1.2 trillion yuan) to build.
The Yarlung Tsangpo, originating in western Tibet’s Ngari region, becomes the Brahmaputra as it flows south into northeast India’s Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states, before entering Bangladesh as the Jamuna River.
Apart from the ever present geological dangers, the unprecedentedly massive dam construction has raised concerns about water supply and environmental impact in downstream in India and Bangladesh, including fears in India that, despite its current assurances, China could weaponise it in times of conflict and other adversarial situations.