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China’s Ladakh border climbdown a part of easing foreign policy to prop failing economy?

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(TibetanReview.net, Oct30’24) –China’s climbdown on its previously unyielding stand of not withdrawing from the Depsang and Demchok plains in India’s eastern Ladakh border areas over the past more than four years may be part of its overall policy to adopt a less confrontational foreign policy due to the severity of its economic situation today.

The country’s economy is facing its worst performance in decades; provincial governments are nearly bankrupt; the real estate sector is collapsing; and manufacturing overproduction is causing global trade tensions, reported indiatoday.in Oct 28, citing global risk expert, political scientist, and author Ian Bremmer.

The real estate sector, which is the worst affected, accounts for about 30% of government revenue and 70% of consumer wealth, is in collapse, the report noted.

Manufacturing remains the only bright spot in China’s economy. However, this strength has become a double-edged sword. With domestic consumption weak, factories are overproducing, leading to political backlash from trading partners worldwide, Bremmer has noted.

“I was just in Beijing … a week ago and I’ll tell you it’s the worst economically I’ve seen the Chinese perform in decades. The leadership is aware of it,” Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, has said.

In his view, these economic pressures are reshaping China’s foreign policy. It is now showing less willingness to engage in confrontational behaviour and is actively seeking to reduce tensions with key partners.

“This is a time when the Chinese are highly aware of not wanting confrontation geopolitically around the world. That’s led to more engagement; it’s led to less willingness to be assertive and aggressive and respond with perceived slights with tit for tat. It’s also absolutely the reason why Xi Jinping decided this was the time to reach out to India and to have a very successful bilateral,” Bremmer has said.

He has cited the recent meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, their first bilateral talks in about five years, as evidence of this shift. While the meeting signals a thaw in relations, experts suggest this change might be temporary.

“I don’t think the Chinese have changed their overall long-term strategy,” Bremmer has said. “But for the near term… I think this isn’t just a matter of a few months. I think this is probably a few years because China’s problems are structural.”

He has said that for the Chinese leadership, the immediate priority appears to be stabilising the domestic economy rather than pursuing aggressive foreign policy objectives. This economic reality is forcing Beijing to adopt a more pragmatic approach to international relations, at least for the foreseeable future.

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