‘Covid-19 cases in India could peak in June-July’

Doctors wearing protective gear seal a vial after taking a swab from a woman to test for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at a residential area in Ahmedabad, India, April 9, 2020. (Photo courtesy: REUTERS/Amit Dave)

(TibetanReview.net, May08’20) – As India entered the 45th day of a stringent nationwide lockdown in a drastic move to curtail the spread of the China-unleashed Covid-19 global pandemic, a top public health expert guiding the country’s novel coronavirus response has said: “The disease will peak at some point but we can’t say what its size would be. Based on projections by experts, the peak is likely somewhere between June and July.”

However, tribuneindia.com May 6 also quoted AIIMS (All-India Institute of Medical Sciences) Director Dr Randeep Guleria as saying, “this can change depending on our response over the next few weeks.”

He has stressed that the surge in new cases could be linked to aggressive testing (rather than the possibility of much more people getting infected).

Noting that most of the cases were restricted to a few areas, he has stressed, “Management must involve reducing numbers in these areas and preventing unaffected areas from getting the disease.”

Dr Guleria is part of the core team of top officials reviewing and monitoring the pandemic in the country.


Whatever may be the case, the country reported 3,390 new cases – the third highest ever daily increase after the May 4 figure – and 103 new deaths during the past 24 hours as of May 8 at 8AM (GMT+5:30), taking their totals to 56,342 infections and 1,886 deaths, according to the tally of India’s Ministry of Health.

India is currently the country with the 14th highest cumulative total of Covid-19 cases and 17th highest number of deaths from the pandemic.

With a total of 16,540 infected persons having recovered, 37,916 cases remain active.

Maharashtra, the worst-hit state by a huge margin, had a cumulative total of 17,974 (+1,216) cases, followed by Gujarat with 7,012 (+387) cases, Delhi with 5,980 (+448) cases, Tamil Nadu with 5,409 (+580) cases, Rajasthan with 3,427 (+110) cases, Madhya Pradesh with 3,252 (+114) cases, Uttar Pradesh with 3,071 (+73) cases, Andhra Pradesh with 1,847 (+70) cases, Punjab with 1,644 (+128) cases, West Bengal with 1,548 (+92) cases, Telangana with 1,123 (+16) cases, Jammu & Kashmir with 793 (+18) cases, Karnataka with 705 (+12) cases, Haryana with 625 (+31) cases, Bihar with 550 (+8) cases, Kerala with 503 (+0) cases, Odisha, 219 (+34), Chandigarh, 135 (+15), and Jharkhand, 132 (+5).

Other badly hit states/Union Territories were Tripura, 65 (+22), Uttarakhand, 61 (+0); Chattisgarh, 59 (+0), Assam, 54 (+9); Himachal Pradesh, 46 (+1); Ladakh, 42 (+1), Andaman and Nicobar Islands, 33 (+0); and Meghalaya 12 (+0).

Besides, Puducherry (9), Goa (7), Manipur (2), Mizoram (1), Arunachal Pradesh (1), And Dadar Nagar Haveli (1) had reported cases.

Maharashtra also had the most number of deaths at 694 (+43), followed by Gujarat, 425 (+29); Madhya Pradesh, 193 (+8); Rajasthan, 97 (+5); Delhi, 66 (+1); Uttar Pradesh, 62 (+2); West Bengal,151 (+7); Andhra Pradesh, 38 (+2); Tamil Nadu 37 (+2); Telangana, 29 (+0); Karnataka, 30 (+1); Punjab, 28 (+1); Jammu & Kashmir, 9 (+1); Haryana, 7 (+0); Bihar 5 (+1); Kerala, 4 (+0); and Jharkhand, 3 (+0) HP, 2 (+0); and Odisha, 2 (+0). Besides four states, namely Assam, Chandigarh, Meghalaya, and Uttarakhand had 1 death each. (Source: https://www.mohfw.gov.in/)


Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray of the worst affected state of Maharashtra has indicated May 7 that the lockdown may be extended till the end of May in the state’s red zones, especially the Mumbai and Pune metropolitan regions which had contributed 90% of the state’s cases so far, reported timesofindia.com May 8.

Regarding Delhi, the report quoted Dr S K Sarin, who heads the Delhi government’s Covid response panel and is also the head of the Institute of Liver and Biliary Sciences, as saying: “The number is expected to stay between 400-500 cases a day for around the next 10 days. This is the natural course of a virus. These are the patients who were infected 10 days ago and are now developing symptoms of the disease. The number of cases is also higher as Delhi has immensely increased testing facilities across the state. The peak season in Delhi is likely to come in June-July where we might witness a surge in cases. The aim is to keep mortality rate low, which Delhi is maintaining so far.”


Across the world the total number of Covid-19 cases had reached 3,861,697 and the deaths 269,867 as of May 8 at 3:02:32 PM (GMT-4), according to the Dashboard maintained by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University. There were 93,162 new cases and 5,758 new deaths during the preceding 24 hours across 187 countries and regions.

The countries with the most number of reported cases thus far were US (1,256,972), Spain (221,447) Italy (215,858), UK (207,977), Russia (187,859), France (174,918), Germany (169,430), Brazil (135,773), Turkey (133,721), Iran (103,135), and China (83,976).

The countries with the most number of deaths were US (75,670), UK (30,689), Italy (29,958), Spain (26,070), France (25,990), Brazil (9,190), Belgium (8,521), Germany (7,392), Iran (6,486), Netherlands (5,306) and China (4,637).


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