Global Covid-19 toll crosses 2.5 million; infections in India seen likely to peak in mid-May

April 23, 2020 2:33 am0 commentsViews: 67

Coronavirus.

(TibetanReview.net, Apr22’20) – Even as the China-unleashed Covid-19 global pandemic continues to infect many tens of thousands and kill many thousands of people across the world each day, latest reports suggest that increases in new cases have been slowing in the five worst affected countries of the US, Spain, Italy, France and Germany, although the same could not be said about the fatality rates, reported timesofindia.com Apr 21. In India too, the rate of growth in new infections was stated to be slowing but at a lower rate than in those worst affected countries even as its death rate has been increasing. However, India’s recovery rate was stated to be far better than those in the Western countries.

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Over the past 24 hours or so, the number of people with Covid-19 infections and deaths across the world increased by 86,179 and 7,095 to reach 2,573,143 and 177,602 respectively, as of Apr 22 at 2:08:57PM (GMT-4), according to the Dashboard maintained by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.

Meanwhile, India has become the 17th country with 20,000 or more infections. The total number of infections in the country had increased by 1,493 and the deaths by 49 over the past 24 hours, reported timesofindia.com Apr 22. However, while the Johns Hopkins University data shows India’s tally of infections at 20,178, the country’s Ministry of Health data shows this figure to be 19,984, with 640 deaths as of Apr 22 at 8AM (GMT+5:30), indicating official report of increases in infections by 1,383 and the deaths by 50.

Maharashtra was the worst hit state by a wide margin with 5218 (+552) cases, followed by Gujarat with 2178 (+239) cases, Delhi with 2156 (+75) cases, Rajasthan with 1659 (+83) cases, Tamil Nadu with 1596 (+76) infections, Madhya Pradesh with 1552 (+67) infections, Uttar Pradesh with 1294 (+110) cases, Telangana with 928 (+55) cases, Andhra Pradesh with 756 (+35) cases, Kerala with 427 (+19) cases, West Bengal with 423 (+31) cases, Karnataka with 418 (+10) cases, Jammu & Kashmir with 380 (+12) cases, Haryana with 254 (+0) cases, Punjab with 245 (+0) cases, and Bihar with 126 (+13) cases.

Other badly hit states/Union Territories were Odisha, 79 (+5); Uttarakhand, 46 (+0);Jharkhand, 45 (+0), Himachal Pradesh, 39 (+0); Chattisgarh, 36 (+0), Assam, 35 (+0); Chandigarh, 27 (+1); Ladakh, 18 (+0); Andaman and Nicobar Islands, 16 (+0); and Meghalaya 12 (+1).

Besides, Puducherry (7), Goa (7), Manipur (2), Tripura (2), Mizoram (1), and Arunachal Pradesh (1) and had reported cases. One case in Nagaland was transferred to Assam.

Maharashtra also had the most number of deaths at 251 (+19), followed by Madhya Pradesh, 76 (+2); Gujarat, 90 (+19); Delhi, 47 (+0); Telangana, 23 (+0); Tamil Nadu 18 (+1); Andhra Pradesh, 22 (+2); Punjab, 16 (+0); Karnataka, 17 (+1); Uttar Pradesh, 20 (+2); West Bengal, 15 (+3); Rajasthan, 25 (+0); Jammu & Kashmir, 5 (+0); Haryana, 3 (+0), Kerala, 3 (+0); Jharkhand, 3 (+1); and Bihar 2 (+0). Besides Odisha, HP, Meghalaya, and Assam had 1 death each. (Source: https://www.mohfw.gov.in/)

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The number of active cases fell for the first time in Delhi since the first case was recorded in the second week of March, reported indianexpress.com Apr 22. The city, which has logged 47 deaths from the pandemic, also did not see any death from it on Apr 21, the report added.

Also on Apr 21, the Delhi government added three more containment zones – parts of Devli Extension, Harsh Vihar in Hari Nagar Extension, and Krishna Puri in Mandawali – taking the total number of red zones to 87. Close to 3.25 lakh people live in these containment zones.

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Meanwhile a Times Network study undertaken in partnership with global consulting firm Protiviti suggests that India could see the number of coronavirus cases crossing 75,000 around May 22 and gradually petering out after that.

The ‘Times Fact India Outbreak Report’ also predicted two scenarios to show when the case tally could fall to zero. The scenarios assume the lockdown is extended beyond May 3 and the reproduction rate of the virus is 0.8, that is, each infected person spreads the disease to 0.8 other people, said a timesofindia.com Apr 22.

In the first scenario, if the lockdown is extended to May 15, the case tally will fall to zero by Sep 15. In the second scenario, if the lockdown is extended to May 30, cases will drop to zero by mid-June, the report said.

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