Study predicts May’20 end to pandemic in many countries, India also optimistic

April 27, 2020 1:28 am0 commentsViews: 2607

BMC doctors conducting COVID 19 test, following COVID 19 pandemic at Ganesh Murti Nagar, Colaba, on April 17, 2020 in Mumbai. (Photo courtesy: Hindustan Times)

(TibetanReview.net, Apr26’20) – Based on an AI driven data analysis researchers at Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) have predicted that the Covid-19 pandemic would soon end in many countries, including India, reported Zee News Apr 26. Based on data from different countries to predict the key dates of transition during the coronavirus lifecycle across the globe, SUTD has predicted through mathematical modeling that Covid-19 will end 97% in India around May 21.

While that may be so, the number of people infected by the Covid-19 pandemic that was unleashed by China from its central city of Wuhan late last year continues to increase by rising numbers in high tens of thousands each day. Over the past 24 hours as of Apr 26 at 3:01:19 PM (GMT-4) a total of 93,189 people were infected and 5,826 died across 185 countries, taking the cumulative global totals to 2,908,527 infections and 203,332 deaths, according to the Dashboard maintained by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.

The countries with the most number of infections thus far are US (939,249), Spain (223,759), Italy (195,351), France (161,644), Germany (156,513), UK (149,569), Turkey (107,773), Iran (89,328) and China (83,909).

The Zee News report cited the SUTD model as showing that the coronavirus pandemic was likely to end 97% in the world on May 29 and end 100% on Dec 8, 2020.

In the US, the outbreak will likely end 97% around May 11, while in Italy it will likely end 97% around May 7, the report further noted.

The study was said to expect the novel coronavirus crisis to end in Iran on May 10, in Turkey on May 15, in the UK on May 9, in Spain at the beginning of the same month, and France on May 3. In Germany, the study is said to predict that the pandemic will end on Apr 30 and in Canada on May 16.

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India, the country with the 16th most number of infections, reported 1989 new infections and 49 new deaths in the past 24 hours as of Apr 26 at 8AM (GMT+5:30), according to the tally of the country’s Ministry of Health. The total number of infections in the country stood at 26,495 and the deaths 824. A total of 5804 had recovered, leaving a total of 19,868 cases active.

Maharashtra, the worst hit state by a huge margin, had a total of 7628 (+811) cases, followed by Gujarat with 3071 (+256) cases, Delhi with 2625 (+111) cases, Madhya Pradesh with 2096 (+244) infections, Rajasthan with 2083 (+49) cases, Tamil Nadu with 1821 (+66) infections, Uttar Pradesh with 1793 (+172) cases, Andhra Pradesh with 1061 (+106) cases, Telangana with 991 (+7) cases, West Bengal with 611 (+40) cases, Karnataka with 500 (+26) cases, Jammu & Kashmir with 494 (+40) cases, Kerala with 457 (+7) cases, Punjab with 298 (+0) cases, Haryana with 289 (+17) cases, and Bihar with 243 (+20) cases.

Other badly hit states/Union Territories were Odisha, 94 (+0); Jharkhand, 67 (+10),Uttarakhand, 48 (+0); Himachal Pradesh, 40 (+0); Chattisgarh, 37 (+1), Assam, 36 (+0); Andaman and Nicobar Islands, 33 (+6); Chandigarh, 28 (+1); Ladakh, 20 (+0); and Meghalaya 12 (+0).

Besides, Puducherry (7), Goa (7), Manipur (2), Tripura (2), Mizoram (1), and Arunachal Pradesh (1) and had reported cases. One case in Nagaland was transferred to Assam.

Maharashtra also had the most number of deaths at 323 (+22), followed by Gujarat, 133 (+6); Madhya Pradesh, 99 (+7); Delhi, 54 (+1); Rajasthan, 33 (+6); Andhra Pradesh, 31 (+2); Uttar Pradesh, 27 (+2); Telangana, 26 (+0); Tamil Nadu 23 (+1); West Bengal, 18 (+0); Karnataka, 18 (+0); Punjab, 17 (+0); Jammu & Kashmir, 6 (+1); Kerala, 4 (+1); Haryana, 3 (+0), Jharkhand, 3 (+0); and Bihar 2 (+0). Besides Odisha, HP, Meghalaya, and Assam had 1 death each. (Source: https://www.mohfw.gov.in/)

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On Apr 24, India claimed that no case of coronavirus infection will come up in the country if the nationwide lockdown was extended till May 16 and the country will get coronavirus-free, said the Zee News report.

According to district-wise data released by the Health Ministry earlier this week, 429 of the country’s 718 districts had reported Covid-19 cases, leaving 289 in the clear, reported indianexpress.com Apr 26.

Meanwhile faulty testing kits from China continued to hamper India’s fight against the pandemic. States across India had complained about faulty rapid testing kits that were imported from China, reported grainmart.in Apr 25. The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) had asked states to stop using the recently distributed Chinese test kits for two days due to considerable variations in the results that ranged from 6% to 71%.

Delhi and five other states, namely Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Bengal, Punjab and Odisha, want the current lockdown to be extended beyond May 3, reported timesofindia.com Apr 26.

Six other states — Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka — said they would follow the Centre’s directive, while Assam, Kerala and Bihar would take a call after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s video conference with states and Union territories on Apr 27, the report added.

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In Delhi, the number of containment zones rose to 95 across its 11 districts on Apr 25, reported indianexpress.com Apr 25. Shops in containment zones will remain shut and no activity will be allowed in such areas while standalone shops and those in residential areas will open with social-distancing norms strictly followed after May 3.

In Himachal Pradesh, of the 9,374 persons under medical surveillance so far, 5,753 had completed the mandatory 28-day quarantine period. A total of 4,623 persons had so far been tested for Covid-19 and 40 had tested positive. There are 16 active cases while 19 had been cured.

The state has already extended the daily curfew relaxations to four hours from the previously enforced three hours.

Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur was now considering a plan to revive the state’s economy once lockdown restrictions end on May 3, reported tribuneindia.com Apr 25.

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