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Weekly Covid-19 cases in India estimated to peak today

(TibetanReview.net, May04’21) – Daily Covid-19 cases in India have fallen slightly for the third successive day after hitting a peak of over 400,000 even as the country’s cumulative cases crossed the 20 million mark reported this morning.

So massive has been the second wave of infections that the country recorded a fourth of all cases till date — nearly half a crore — in the last 15 days alone, reported the timesofindia.com Apr 4.

In what may be seen as a note of optimism, scientists working on a mathematical model to chart the trajectory of Covid-19 cases have noted that the peak of new infections could be reached within the next 24 hours at around 4 lakh cases (seven-day average) and peak of active caseload could touch around 40 lakh between May 14-18, said another timesofindia.com report Apr 4.

“Our model shows that the peak of new cases, taken as 7-day average, will be reached by Tuesday (May 4) and the peak of active infections would be around 40 lakh at lower end of our earlier prediction range,” Manindra Agrawal of IIT-Kanpur was quoted as saying.

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The latest data from India’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare show that there were 357,229 new Covid-19 cases and 3,449 new deaths in the country in the past 24 hours recorded on May 4 at 8 AM, taking their cumulative totals to 20,282,833 cases and 222,408 deaths respectively.

A total of over 16.61 million (16,613,292 or 81.91%), had recovered while the number of active cases was over 3.4 million (3,447,133, or 17% of the total). The case fatality rate was 1.1%.

The active caseload was at its lowest at 1,35,926 on Feb 12 comprising 1.25% of the total infections.

The latest daily number of new cases, at 357,229, was substantially higher than the daily number of those who had recovered, at 320,289, leading to a big jump in the number of active cases by 33,491.

Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Bihar, and Telangana with big caseloads have reported slight daily declines in active cases.

Twenty-three states/Union Territories have reported more than 1,000 new cases in the last 24 hours, namely Maharashtra (48,621), Karnataka (44,438), Uttar Pradesh (29,052), Kerala (26,011), Tamil Nadu (20,952), Andhra Pradesh (18,972), Delhi (18,043), West Bengal (17,501), Rajasthan (17,296), Chattisgarh (15,274), Haryana (12,885), Gujarat (12,820), Madhya Pradesh (12,062), Bihar (11,407), Odisha (8,914), Telangana (6,876), Jharkhand (6,899), Punjab (6,772), Uttarakhand (5,403), Assam (4,489), Jammu and Kashmir (3,733), Himachal Pradesh (2,630), and Goa (2,703).

Eight other states/Union Territories have reported more than 100 new cases in the last 24 hours, namely Chandigarh (890), Puducherry (799), Meghalaya (246), Manipur (362), Nagaland (101), Dadra And Nagar Haveli And Daman And Diu (137), Tripura (271), and Arunachal Pradesh (220).

Thirty states/Union Territories have reported 3 or more Covid-19 deaths each in the last 24 hours, namely Maharashtra (567), Delhi (448), Uttar Pradesh (285), Chattisgarh (266), Karnataka (239), Punjab (155), Rajasthan (154), Gujarat (140), Haryana (140), Jharkhand (129), Uttarakhand (128), Tamil Nadu (122), West Bengal (98), Madhya Pradesh (93), Bihar (82), Andhra Pradesh (71), Telangana (59), Jammu and Kashmir (51), Goa (46), Kerala (45), Himachal Pradesh (43), Assam (29), Puducherry (15), Chandigarh (11), Odisha (5), Manipur (7),  Meghalaya (6), Nagaland (6), Odisha (5), and Ladakh (3). The rest of the states/Union Territories have reported 2 or less deaths.

India is currently the country with the world’s second highest number of Covid-19 cases after the USA, and the fourth highest number of deaths after the USA, Brazil and Mexico in cumulative numbers.

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The cumulative total of Covid-19 cases among Tibetans in India and Nepal had remained unchanged for the second day at 2,528, according to the tally of the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) on its Tibet.net website May 4. Of the total number of cases, 1,725 had recovered, 745 were active, and 58 had died.

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Across the world the number of Covid-19 cases totaled over 153 million (153,594,320) and the deaths over 3.21 million (3,214,790), according to the tally of Johns Hopkins University as of May 4, 2021 at 3:50 PM.

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