(TibetanReview.net, Feb06’26) – Gen Zhang Youxia, senior vice-chairman of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) and the most senior uniformed general, was all too conspicuous an absence to be ignored from the entourage of President Xi Jinping when he landed at Lhasa Gongkar Airport on Aug 20, 2025, to celebrate 60 years of the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). It may also have, in retrospect, portent an imminent disarray in the top echelon of China’s armed forces, putting paid to any plan to invade Taiwan by 2027, according to expert analyses.
While some observers suggested at the time that Zhang stayed back as an act of being not supportive of – in fact, being a threat to – Xi, it has now emerged that the opposite may have been the truth, with the presumably untouchable general now being placed under investigation. Such is the opacity of the situation in the party-state’s internal power equation, or should we say tussle?
Zhang’s absence from Xi’s entourage was glaring in view of the fact that it included a large delegation from Beijing. Wang Huning, No 4 in the Party, chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and member of the Politburo’s Standing Committee, as well as his colleague, Cai Qi, No 5, were in attendance.
Gen Zhang Shengmin, a recently appointed CMC member and head of its Discipline Inspection Commission, represented the PLA. He replaced Gen Zhang Youxia, who normally accompanies Xi (as he did in 2021, when Xi last visited the Roof of the World), noted Claude Arpi, Distinguished Fellow, Centre of Excellence for Himalayan Studies, Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence (Delhi). In a firstpost.com piece Jan 30.
During his stay in Tibet, Shengmin toured close to the Indian border in the Shannan Military Sub-district and inspected various grassroots and military units. This could, in retrospect, be seen as suggestive of the fact that he may have already started stepping into the shoes of Zhang.
As regards events which preceded the placing of Zhang under investigation, Arpi has quoted a well-known Chinese blogger as having said, “A failed coup attempt was orchestrated by the two generals (Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, who also has been placed under investigation), senior cadres of the Party and the military. The operation was reportedly scheduled for the night of Jan 18th at the Jingxi Hotel in Beijing, a venue frequently used by top leadership.”
The plan was alleged to involve capturing Xi to force a political reset, ostensibly to ‘save the party and country’.
Arpi quoted the informed insider as saying, “The plot was reportedly compromised when intelligence reached Xi Jinping, roughly two hours before the operation was set to commence, allowing him to flee the hotel. When General Zhang Youxia’s forces arrived, they walked into a trap.”
This was stated to have been followed by a violent confrontation, resulting in a gunfight that left nine of Xi’s personal guards and dozens of the mutinous security officers dead. Following the failed coup, Xi ordered the immediate arrest of both generals and the detention of their family members.
Nevertheless, sources are stated to assert that Zhang and Liu had not been arrested and were waiting to return; though was impossible to confirm.
On the other hand, an editorial published in the Liberation Army Daily, the Army official newspaper, was stated to have affirmed that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli “seriously betrayed the trust and expectations of the Party Central Committee and the Central Military Commission, severely trampled on and undermined the Chairman of the Central Military Commission’s responsibility system, seriously fostered political and corruption problems that undermined the Party’s absolute leadership over the military and threatened the Party’s ruling foundation, seriously damaged the image and prestige of the Central Military Commission, and severely impacted the political and ideological foundation for unity and progress among all officers and soldiers”.
A Wall Street Journal report suggesting that Zhang was accused of leaking information about China’s nuclear weapons programme to the US and accepting bribes is considered by some some to be a counter-propaganda orchestrated by Xi’s side to cover up the seriousness of the alleged mutiny.
According to the Jamestown Foundation, it all may have to do with the fact that Zhang’s timeline for PLA joint operations training did not align with Xi’s 2027 deadline for the PLA to be capable of invading Taiwan.
“…Whether Zhang and Liu remain in office or not, [it] would not have enabled the PLA to meet the 2027 target. [But] their continued presence instead posed a challenge to Xi’s authority,” the Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief analysis was stated to have concluded.
The turmoil in the situation in the PLA has also been seen as underlined by the fact that while the names of 89 generals (including four full generals, two lieutenant generals and 83 major generals) leading 59 formations were announced for the 2025 September parade, none appeared on Sep 3, 2025.
And just before the start of the CPC’s fourth plenum on Oct 20, Senior Col Zhang Xiaogang, spokesperson for China’s defence ministry, confirmed some dramatic changes: “With the approval of the Communist Party of China’s Central Committee and the Central Military Commission, the CMC’s Discipline Inspection Commission and Supervisory Commission have opened formal investigations into nine senior military officials,” Arpi has noted.
“Investigations revealed that all nine officials had seriously violated Party discipline and were suspected of committing major duty-related crimes involving extremely large sums of money,” the spokesperson was quoted as saying. They included Politburo member and CMC vice-chairman He Weidong and CMC member and director of the political work department, Miao Hua.
Now, with only 2 out of 7 members of the CMC remaining, with neither being professional soldiers, and with a large percentage of these generals owing allegiance to Gen Zhang, China is ill-prepared to undertake a conflict today, Arpi has noted.