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Has Trump-fear driven China to be conciliatory towards India?

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(TibetanReview.net, Nov22’24) –As China-hawk Donald Trump ascends the US presidency, come Jan 20, good relationship with India is becoming particularly important for Beijing. As geographical neighbours and the two most populous countries in the world, China and India not only face similar challenges, but also share extensive common interests, said the official globaltimes.cn Nov 21 in an editorial.

This may explain why from being reportedly stubbornly unyielding on withdrawing its troops from Depsang and Demchok incursions in eastern Ladakh over numerous rounds of border talks at various levels, despite a series of strong moves from India that adversely affected its interests in the country, China agreed to a seemingly sudden border patrolling agreement on these areas on Oct 21, to be preceded by disengagement and followed by de-escalation and restoration of trust leading to normalization of bilateral ties.

For China-India relations to become more stable, it is essential for both governments to maintain dialogue, strengthen economic ties, and promote cultural and personnel exchanges, the editorial said.

Still, the editorial maintained that the strength of the momentum for improvement in bilateral relations in the future will largely depend on the sincerity of the Indian side. It expressed hope that India can allow consensus, rather than differences, to shape China-India relations. This obviously referred to New Delhi’s conditioning of restoration of normal bilateral ties to China’s withdrawal, first of all, from the Depsang and Demchok incursions.

China’s response to Trump’s “America first” approach that envisages huge tariffs on imports from it will demand not only a strong domestic market but also engagement with all possible international stakeholders, the scmp.com Nov 22 cited Zhu Xian, a former World Bank vice-president and a former deputy head of the Shanghai-headquartered New Development Bank (NDB), as saying. This obviously also means healing its seriously frayed ties with India, the world’s fifth largest economy with a consumer base of over 1.4 billion.

Zhu has also maintained, however, that the looming threats posed by Trump’s tariff and climate policies could also open a window of opportunity for Beijing to elevate its global profile and move the needle on issues such as increasing the international role of China’s currency, the yuan.

Still, that “depends on whether Beijing can bring forward an agenda … that can be supported by other developing countries, new emerging economies or even some developed nations,” the development finance veteran has said in an interview with the Post.

The report noted that on the campaign trail, Trump had raised eyebrows around the world with his threats to impose tariffs of 60 to 100% on imports from China and of 10 to 20% on products from other countries. While it is argued that US consumers will end up paying for those high tariffs, their effect on Chinese exports due to reduced demands also cannot be underestimated.

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