Study suggests pandemic in India will end mid-Sept as country registers world’s 5th highest total cases

June 7, 2020 11:09 pm0 commentsViews: 101

Migrants wait outside Nampally Railway station to board a special train to reach the native places. (Photo courtesy: PTI)

(TibetanReview.net, Jun07’20) – It took just another day for India to move from being the country with the 6th most number of Covid-19 pandemic infections to the 5th. After overtaking Italy the day before, it surpassed Spain to log up a total of 246,628 cases as of Jun 7 at 8AM (GMT+5:30) after 9,971 new cases were reported over the past 24 hours, shows the tally of the country’s Ministry of Health.

The country also saw 287 new deaths during those past 24 hours, taking the total to 6,929 deaths, the 12th highest in the world.

The top 10 states with the highest confirmed cases —Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat, Rajasthan, UP, MP, West Bengal, Karnataka and Bihar — together accounted for 84% of the total cases and 95% of the fatalities, noted timesofindia.com Jun 7.

There are around 700 districts in India (out of a total 736) that have reported at least one Covid-19 case, reported indianexpress.com Jun 7. That number was 630 on May 22, right after the country entered its fourth phase of lockdown with major relaxations in non-containment zones, the report said.

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AIIMS (All India Institute of Medical Sciences) Director Randeep Guleria has told ndtv.com Jun 6 that coronavirus cases in India could peak in two to three months.

Also, two public health experts from India’s health ministry have said the Covid-19 pandemic may be over in India around mid-September, using a mathematical model-based analysis to draw this projection.

The analysis shows that when the number of infected becomes equal to those removed from circulation by recovery and death, the coefficient will reach the 100 per cent threshold and the epidemic will be “extinguished”.

The analysis, done by Dr Anil Kumar, Deputy Director General (Public Health) in the DGHS, and Rupali Roy, Deputy Assistant Director (Leprosy) DGHS in the health ministry, was published in the online journal Epidemiology International.

However, earlier, on Jun 2, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) expert Dr Nivedita Gupta had said during a joint briefing with the Ministry of Health that the country was still far from reaching the Covid-19 peak.

“We are very far away from the peak. Our preventive measures have been very effective. We are in a much better position vis-a-vis other countries,” indianexpress.com Jun 3 quoted Dr Gupta as saying.

Before that, a study by the Kolkata-based Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science (IACS) showed that the Covid-19 infection may peak in late June nationally, with the highest number of infection reaching over 150,000, as reported by the timesofindia.com May 4. This prediction was stated to be based on a “bio-computational modelling” study.

A Singapore University of Technology and Design prediction through mathematical modeling earlier on that Covid-19 will end 97 per cent in India around May 21 did not come true.

Clearly Covid-19 has a mind of its own to defy predictions based even on scientific models.

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As the Covid-19 situation in India now stands, daily increases appear set to rise to more than 10,000 in the coming days and the biggest source of encouragement now appears to be the recovery rate, which is put at more than 48%.

The five worst hit states with more than 10,000 cases were led by Maharashtra with a total of 82,968 cases after 2739 fresh cases were reported in the past 24 hours, followed by Tamil Nadu with 30,152 (↑1458) cases, Delhi with 27,654 (↑1320) cases, Gujarat with 19,592 (↑498) cases and Rajasthan 10,331 (↑247).

Below them were 15 states/Union Territories with more than 1,000 cases, namely Uttar Pradesh 9,733 (↑0), Madhya Pradesh 9,228 (↑232), West Bengal 7,738 (↑435), Karnataka 5,213 (↑378), Bihar 4,915 (↑319), Andhra Pradesh 4,510 (↑207), Haryana 3,952 (↑355), Telangana 3,496 (↑206), Jammu & Kashmir 3,467 (↑143), Odisha 2,781 (↑173), Punjab 2515 (↑54), Assam 2,397 (↑244), Kerala 1,807 (↑108), Uttarakhand 1,303 (↑88), and Jharkhand 1,000 (↑119).

And then there were seven other states/ Union Territories with more than 100 cases, namely Chattisgarh 923 (↑44), Tripura 747 (↑55), Himachal Pradesh 400 (↑7), Chandigarh 309 (↑5), Goa 267 (↑71), Manipur 157 (↑8), and Nagaland 107 (↑13).

Eight States/Union Territories with less than 100 cases included Puducherry 99 (↑0), Ladakh 99 (↑2), Arunachal Pradesh 47 (↑2), Andaman and Nicobar Islands 33 (↑0), Meghalaya 33 (↑0), Mizoram 24 (↑2), Dadra Nagar Haveli 19 (↑5), and Sikkim 7 (↑4).

Lakshadweep remains the only states/Union Territories without any Covid-29 case.

Maharashtra also had the most number of deaths at 2,969 (↑120), followed by Gujarat 1,219 (↑29), Delhi 761 (↑51), Madhya Pradesh 399 (↑15), West Bengal 383 (↑17), Uttar Pradesh 257 (↑0), Tamil Nadu 251 (↑19), Rajasthan 231 (↑13), Telangana 123 (↑10), Andhra Pradesh 73 (↑0), Karnataka 59 (↑2), Punjab 50 (↑2), Jammu & Kashmir 39 (↑3), Bihar 30 ↑1), Haryana 24 (↑0), Kerala 15 (↑1), Uttarakhand 11 (↑0), Odisha 8 (↑0), Jharkhand 7 (↑0), Himachal Pradesh 5 (↑0), Chandigarh 5 (↑0), Assam 4 (↑0), Chattisgarh 4 (↑2), Ladakh 1 ((↑0) and Meghalaya 1 (↑0).

(Source: https://www.mohfw.gov.in/)

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Across the world the total number of Covid-19 cases surged past the 6.9 million mark to reach 6,900,011 while a total of 399,854 had died as of Jun 07 at 1:03:25 PM (GMT-4), according to the Dashboard maintained by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.

There were a record 157,136 new cases and 4,824 new deaths during the preceding 24 hours or so across 188 countries and regions.

The countries with the most number of reported Covid-19 cases thus far were US (1,920,061), Brazil (672,846), Russia (458,102), UK (286,294), India (247,040), Spain (241,310), Italy (234,801), Peru (191,758), France (190,759), Germany (185,696), Iran (169,425), and Turkey (169,218).

The countries with the most number of Covid-19 deaths were US (109,802), UK (40,548), Brazil (35,930), Italy (33,846), France (29,145), Spain (27,135), Mexico (13,511), Belgium (9,580), Germany (8,685), Iran (8,209), Canada (7,850), India (6,946), Netherlands (6,030), Russia (5,717), Peru (5,301), Turkey (4,669) Sweden (4,656) and China (4,638).

(Source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)

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