(TibetanReview.net, Jan19’25) – In what is seen as bad news for the country’s economy in the long run, China said Jan 17 that its population fell last year for the third straight year and now stands at 1.408 billion. China pursued a one-child policy with draconian measures for nearly four decades since 1979 in order to be able to feed itself and to alleviate social, economic, and environmental pressures. Its efforts to reverse the spectacular success of this policy since 2015 has been one of continuous failure.
The National Bureau of Statistics said the total number of people dropped by 1.39 million by the end of 2024, compared to a fall of 2.08 million in 2023 and 850,000 in 2022, reported China’s official chinadaily.com.cn Jan 17.
The number of newborns in 2024 reached 9.54 million, up from 9.02 million in 2023. This slight increase was stated to match experts’ prediction that the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, the auspicious zodiac sign of the Year of the Dragon, and a rebound in new marriage registrations would lift the birthrate in 2024. This was stated to be after seven consecutive years of decline.
However, the number of deaths outpaced the number of births by only a small margin, standing at 10.93 million, the data was stated to show, resulting in a negative natural increase.
The number of people aged 60 years and older was stated to have reached 310 million in 2024, or 22% of the total population. The ratio of the elderly in 2023 was stated to be 21.1%.
China has long been among the world’s most populous nations, enduring invasions, floods and other natural disasters to sustain a population that thrived on rice in the south and wheat in the north. Following the end of World War II and the Communist Party’s rise to power in 1949, large families re-emerged and the population doubled in just three decades, even after tens of millions died in the Great Leap Forward that sought to revolutionize agriculture and industry and the Cultural Revolution that followed a few years later, noted the AP Jan 17.
Selective abortion of female children during the decades of one-Child policy led to millions more boys born for every 100 girls, raising the possibility of social instability among China’s army of bachelors. The Jan 15 report gave the sex imbalance as 104.34 men to every 100 women, though independent groups give the imbalance as considerably higher, the report noted.
Now a rapidly aging population, declining workforce, lack of consumer markets and migration abroad are putting the system under severe pressure.
While spending on the military and flashy infrastructure projects continues to rise, China’s already frail social security system is teetering, with increasing numbers of Chinese refusing to pay into the underfunded pension system, the report said.
The current developments are seen as giving some credence to the aphorism that China, now the world’s second largest economy but facing major headwinds, will “grow old before it grows rich.”
Government inducements including cash payouts for having up to three children and financial help with housing costs are seen to have had only temporary effects.
With improved hospital maternity services, toddler care centres, “mom posts,” and birth subsidies, China is building a more childbirth-friendly society, as reported by the official Xinhua news agency Jan 18.
The National Health Commission (NHC) and other government departments recently issued guidelines for building birth-friendly hospitals across the country. These hospitals will integrate perinatal depression screening into routine prenatal and postnatal care and offer 24-hour labour pain relief services, the report said.