Covid-19 cases in India to peak in mid-July?

June 23, 2020 10:26 pm0 commentsViews: 52

Covid-19 cases rising rapidly in India as the pandemic’s geography shifting. (Photo courtesy: UB)

(TibetanReview.net, Jun23’20) – India is projected to hit its peak of 259,967 active Covid-19 cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on Jul 15 and 3,86,916 active cases as per the SEIR model on Jul 25, reported timesnownews.com Jun 16. The SEIR model for spread of infectious diseases assumes that people carry lifelong immunity to a disease upon recovery, but for Covid-19 the immunity is said to last for no more than two to three months.

The report said both these projections were based on mathematical modelling by the Times Fact-India Outbreak Report, a joint endeavour by data research firm Protiviti and Times Network, which claims 96 percent accuracy in predicting Covid-19 numbers.

The study’s graph shows that the pandemic’s spread will taper off and end before the end of Sep 2020.

Earlier, wionews.com reported Jun 14 that a study conducted by researchers from an Operations Research Group constituted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) had said the peak may come only in Mid-November.

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Whatever may be the case, India’s Ministry of Health reported 14,933 new cases in the past 24 hours as of Jun 23 at 8 AM and 312 new deaths during that period, taking the totals to 440,215 cases and 14,011 deaths.

A total of 248,190, had recovered, so that the number of active cases was 178,041.

India currently has the fourth highest number of Covid-19 cases after the US, Brazil and Russia. It also has the eighth highest number of deaths from the pandemic.

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The nine worst hit states with more than 10,000 cases were led by Maharashtra with a total of 135,796 cases after 3,721 fresh cases were reported in the past 24 hours, followed by Delhi with 62,655 (↑2,909) cases, Tamil Nadu with 62,087 (↑2,710) cases, Gujarat with 27,825 (↑565) cases, Uttar Pradesh 18,322 (↑591), Rajasthan 15,232 (↑302), West Bengal 14,358 (↑413), Madhya Pradesh with 12,078 (↑175) cases, and Haryana with 11,025 (↑390) cases.

Below them were 13 states/Union Territories with more than 1,000 cases, namely Karnataka 9,399 (↑249), Andhra Pradesh 9,372 (↑373), Telangana 8,674 (↑872), Bihar 7,825 (↑213), Jammu & Kashmir 6,088 (↑132), Assam 5,586 (↑198), Odisha 5,303 (↑143), Punjab 4,235 (↑161), Kerala 3,310 (↑138), Uttarakhand 2,402 (↑58), Chattisgarh 2,303 (↑28), Jharkhand 2,137 (↑64), and Tripura 1,237 (↑16).

And then there were nine other states/ Union Territories with more than 100 cases, namely Manipur 898 (↑57), Goa 864 (↑110), Ladakh 847 (↑10), Himachal Pradesh 727 (↑54), Chandigarh 411 (↑5), Puducherry 383 (↑17), Nagaland 280 (↑69), Mizoram 141 (↑0), and Arunachal Pradesh 139 (↑4).

Three states/Union Territories with less than 100 cases included Sikkim 78 (↑0), Andaman and Nicobar Islands 48 (↑0), and Meghalaya 44 (↑0).

Lakshadweep and Dadra Nagar Haveli remain the only States /Union Territories without any Covid-19 case.

Maharashtra also had the most number of deaths at 6,283 (↑113), followed by Delhi 2,233 (↑58), Gujarat 1,684 (↑21), Tamil Nadu 794 (↑37), West Bengal 569 (↑14), Madhya Pradesh 521 (↑6), Uttar Pradesh 569 (↑19), Rajasthan 356 (↑7), Telangana 217 (↑7), Haryana 169 (↑9), Karnataka 142 (↑5), Andhra Pradesh 111 (↑5), Punjab 101 (↑2), Jammu & Kashmir 85 (↑3), Bihar 55 (↑2), Uttarakhand 28 (↑1), Kerala 21 (↑0), Odisha 15(↑1), Jharkhand 11 (↑0),  Chattisgarh 12 (↑1), Assam 9 (↑0), Himachal Pradesh 8 (↑0), Nagaland 8 ((↑0), Puducherry 8 (↑0), Chandigarh 6 (↑0), Goa 1 (↑1), Ladakh 1 (↑0), Meghalaya 1 (↑0), and Tripura 1 (↑0).

Six States/ Union Territory with Covid-19 cases have reported no deaths so far.

(Source: https://www.mohfw.gov.in/)

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Delhi has been racing ahead in the number of Covid-19 infections over the last several days amid fears that it may be on course to overtake Maharashtra to become the worst affected state.

The national capital has reported the highest single-day spike with 3,630 new cases, the number of containment zones too has increased to 262, with the South West district topping the chart with 39 active areas. A close second is the North district with 36 active containment zones.

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Himachal Pradesh also witnessed an all-time high of 54 new Covid-19 cases on Jun 23 morning, taking the tally to 727.

Ten of these were from Kangra, taking the number of cases in the district to 191, including 70 active cases, reported tribuneindia.com Jun 23.

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Regarding the number of Tibetan cases, the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) has reported a total of 33 cases in India, Nepal and Bhutan, of which 14 were active, 17 had recovered, and two had died.

The CTA has also reported a total of 213 cases among Tibetans living in other countries abroad, of which 40 were active, 165 had recovered and eight had died.

The CTA has also noted that there had been a total of 107 cases in Chinese occupied Tibet, of which 106 had recovered and one had died.

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Across the world the total number of Covid-19 cases has surged past the 9.1 million mark to reach 9,115,878 while a total of 472,521 had died as of Jun 23 at 3:03:28 PM, according to the Dashboard maintained by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.

There were 152,439 new cases and 4,036 new deaths during the past 25 hours across 188 countries and regions.

The countries with the most number of reported Covid-19 cases thus far were the US (2,312,302), Brazil (1,106,470), Russia (598,878), India (440,215) … China (84,624).

The countries with the most number of Covid-19 deaths were US (120,402), Brazil (51,271), UK (42,731), Italy (34,657), France (29,666), Spain (28,324), Mexico (22,584), India (14,011) … China (4,639).

(Source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)

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