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‘Over half of Tibetan Plateau’s glaciers may melt by 2100’

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(TibetanReview.net, Aug20’24) – Chinese scientists have warned that some low-elevation glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau may disappear permanently, which could significantly impact the plateau’s ecosystem. In fact, by the end of the current, 21st century, the loss of glacial mass in some regions of the Tibetan Plateau will exceed 50%, according to the scientists’ model predictions cited by China’s official Xinhua news agency Aug 20.

Over the past five decades, the plateau has witnessed rapid warming, with a temperature increase of about 0.4 degrees Celsius every 10 years, more than double the global average warming rate during the same period, the report noted.

Citing the example of Rongbuk Glacier at the foot of Mount Everest, Wu Guangjian, a researcher at the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), has said, “the length and height of it are both shrinking.”

Wu has added that global warming has caused the rate of glacier evaporation to exceed precipitation, and that small glaciers at lower elevations on the plateau are melting more rapidly and are likely to disappear in the future.

The researchers, led by the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, have presented a summary of their findings from ongoing work on Aug 18.

The seriousness of the scientists’ warning lies in the fact that the Tibetan Plateau is the region with the most glaciers outside the polar regions. “Data shows that the glaciers on the plateau holds over 8 trillion cubic metres of water, providing essential water resources for more than 2 billion people downstream,” the report noted.

“The model shows that lake water levels in some areas of the plateau might rise by over 10 metres at the end of the century, which could enhance the plateau’s overall water supply capacity,” Yao Tandong, an academician at the CAS and the leader of China’s ongoing second scientific expedition and research project on the Tibetan Plateau has said.

“However,” Yao has added, “it also increases the risk of glacier collapses and glacial lake outburst floods.”

The scientists have noted that global warming meant that the amount of grassland and forest had increased by 6 and 12% respectively over the last 15 years. However, they have warned that these changes also carried an increased risk of extreme weather events.

Although the increase in vegetation will help prevent desertification, in the long run it will cause a shift in monsoon circulation, resulting in more heavy rainfall during the summer.

These changes “could lead to significant shifts in the Asian monsoon circulation, potentially increasing the frequency of extreme weather events in China”, the scmp.com Aug 20 quoted Yao as saying.

In this project, Chinese scientists were stated to have used high-precision radar for the first time to obtain a continuous profile of snow and ice thickness at the summit of Mount Everest, as well as accurate measurements of its ice and snow depth.

Wu has warned that unless the world reaches a consensus on addressing climate warming and take action as soon as possible, “we will witness the disappearance of glaciers in more regions across the globe.”

Previously, the China Meteorological Administration had warned that the total glacier area on the Tibetan Plateau may fall by 40% by 2050, increasing the risk of severe storms and floods in downstream areas, noted the scmp.com report.

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