(TibetanReview.net, Jan08’25) –The devastating earthquake that hit Dingri County in Tibet on Jan 7 morning, killing a total of at least 126 people, injuring 188 others and destroying or damaging thousands of homes, has prompted geologists to renew their call on China, India, Nepal and Bhutan, which share the Himalayas, to sit together and carefully assess the geological impact of rampant dam building. However, this could be argued as precisely the reason why China recently approved the actual building of the world’s biggest hydropower dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo due to its potential for use as a hydrological weapon of mass destruction on downstream countries, given the fact that it is to be built just before the river enters India.
The dialogue should be without rancour and focussed on actual possibilities, said an opinion piece by Subir Bhaumik, a veteran BBC journalist and author, posted on the thefederal.com Jan 7.
But according to geostrategist Brahma Chellaney, China’s approval of the super-dam’s construction suggested that work was already well underway, given that the project had received the go-ahead from the country’s rubber-stamp parliament in Mar 2021.
Tibet’s southeastern region is earthquake-prone because it sits on the geological fault line where the Indian Plate and the Eurasian Plate collide. Building the huge dam close to this fault line makes the project potentially a ticking water bomb for downstream communities, Chellaney has said in an opinion piece posted on thehill.com Jan 6.
Chellaney says the new super-dam carries both geopolitical and environmental risks.
According to Bhaumik, the concern especially grows in the wake of China’s approval late last month of a plan to build the world’s largest hydropower dam in Tibet, located close to the border with India. It is located at a place where the Yarlung Tsangpo turns left and sharply drops before it flows into Arunachal Pradesh, where it is called the Siang. As it enters Assam, it becomes the Brahmaputra and, as it is flows into Bangladesh, it is called the Jamuna, which then flows into the Bay of Bengal.
India has already voiced much concern over this mega-dam on the Tibetan plateau in view of the perceived serious implications for its national security as well as on its and Bangladesh’s ecology, affecting millions. Hydrologists have flagged the possibilities of both a water scarcity downstream and severe flash floods, especially if China wants to leverage “a water bomb” during a war.
Bhaumik says this is especially because the multiple earthquakes rocking Tibet near the holy city of Shigatse on Tuesday (Jan 7) have raised a more dangerous possibility that one geologist described as an “on-land tsunami” — a possible dam collapse or huge cracks after earthquake(s) that could unleash huge volumes of water and wipe out many downstream locations.
He has cited geologists as saying that since China is admitting to such a high frequency of seismic activity in Tibet, it should seriously reconsider its plans to commission the mega-dam on Yarlung Tsangpo.
China claims the project will pose no ecological hazard for the Himalayan region or cause other problems for downstream countries, as it has undertaken detailed studies over the past decades. But after Tuesday’s earthquake, geologists feel the studies just may not be good enough. That’s because the impact zone was quite widespread.
According to Chellaney, contrary to China’s claims, the dam will likely have far-reaching downstream impacts in India and Bangladesh, including altering the cross-border flow and course of the river, which empties into the Bay of Bengal. It will also trap the river’s nutrient-rich silt that helps to naturally fertilize farmlands during the annual monsoonal flooding, as well as sustains marine life.
He has said Tibet’s fragile ecosystems are already threatened by climate change and China’s reckless exploitation of the plateau’s vast mineral and water resources. And the super-dam threatens to cause lasting damage to these ecosystems, which play a central role in triggering Asia’s annual monsoons.
To make matters worse, he has continued, the behemoth dam is being built in a seismically active area, which raises the spectre of a geological disaster. Tibet’s southeastern region is earthquake-prone because it sits on the geological fault line where the Indian Plate and the Eurasian Plate collide. Building the huge dam close to this fault line makes the project potentially a ticking water bomb for downstream communities.
Besides, the dam project will give China control over cross-border river flows, thus allowing it to leverage its territorial claim to India’s sprawling, Tibet-bordering Arunachal Pradesh state, which is almost three times the area of Taiwan.
While maintaining a veil of secrecy over its super-dam project since it was conceived, Beijing has asserted a “legitimate right” to dam the river in a border area. This is in keeping with its longstanding claim that it has “indisputable sovereignty” over waters on its side of the international boundary, including the right to divert as much shared water as it wishes for its legitimate needs.
Given this situation, Chellaney says there is growing concern among downstream countries that China is seeking to weaponize the water resources of the Tibetan Plateau, most of whose river systems are transnational in nature. Not content with the 87,000 dams it has already built across the country, China remains engaged in dam-building frenzy, he says. According to him, China’s colossal dam project in Tibet will not only compel India to prepare for contingencies but also ensure that, despite recent conciliatory moves, mistrust and strategic rivalry continue to define the Sino-Indian relationship.