(TibetanReview.net, Apr12’25) – Chinese researchers have revealed, using advanced prediction systems, that the Tibetan Plateau is expected to experience accelerated warming in the next 10 years, reported China’s official Xinhuanews agency Apr 11, citing the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
The scientists have used new, advanced systems to make the prediction more accurate on account of the fact that while traditional climate projections can highlight long-term trends, the temperature changes on the Tibetan Plateau over the next decade remain highly uncertain due to substantial internal climate variability.
The report said that this new study utilized decadal climate prediction – an emerging tool that combines the initial state of the climate system with external forcing – to arrive at the improved accuracy in regional climate forecasts.
The researchers from the IAP are stated to have analysed advanced international decadal prediction systems to assess the predictability of temperature changes on the Tibetan Plateau.
Their findings are stated to indicate that between 2025 and 2032, the region’s annual mean temperature will rise by 0.98 degrees Celsius compared to the 1991-2020 baseline. This warming rate is 1.75 times faster than the observed increase from 2016 to 2023.
The report said that using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), the researchers simulated the impact of accelerated warming on the Tibetan Plateau glaciers. And the results are stated to suggest that the warming is projected to reduce glacier volume by approximately 1.4%, leading to faster melt rates that threaten water security for hundreds of millions across Asia. This dramatic loss also risks destabilizing regional ecological balance and could trigger far-reaching climatic consequences globally.
The study, published in the journal Science Bulletin, is also stated to highlight that the decadal predictability of Tibetan Plateau temperatures is influenced not only by external factors like greenhouse gas concentrations but also by internal climate variability, particularly what are called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO).