(TibetanReview.net, Jun01’25) – Having stopped sharing with downstream India vital hydrological data on transboundary rivers like the Brahmaputra since 2022, China has now hinted at weaponizing the Brahmaputra’s waters in support of its “all-weather friend” Pakistan, reported businesstoday.in May 31, citing a top Chinee strategist. Perhaps India should counter by demanding a Brahmaputra water agreement with it as a condition for signing a new Indus waters treaty with Pakistan on similar terms?
“Don’t do onto others what you don’t want done to you,” Victor Zhikai Gao, vice president of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization has said, referring to India’s Apr 23 decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan over the latter’s alleged involvement the day before in the terrorist strike in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam town.
His warning, issued in an interview with India Today, hinted at Beijing’s own strategic grip on the Brahmaputra, a river crucial to India’s water security.
However, any decision to weaponize the Brahmaputra (called Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet) will affect China-friendly Bangladesh too.
The report said Gao repeated the caution thrice when asked if China might weaponize the Brahmaputra’s waters in support of its “all-weather friend” Pakistan. He has underscored India’s vulnerability as a midstream nation, suggesting it “may face difficulties” should similar retaliatory measures occur.
Signed in 1960, the treaty governs the use and distribution of the six rivers of the Indus basin between India and Pakistan and is seen as being too much in favour of Pakistan.
Gao’s warning has come in the backdrop of China having stopped sharing vital hydrological data on transboundary rivers like the Brahmaputra since 2022. The lapse follows the expiration — and non-renewal — of earlier Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs). This blackout coincides with an acceleration of Chinese mega-dam construction in Tibet, cutting India off from critical upstream flow data just as it needed it most, the report noted.
The Brahmaputra is stated to support nearly a third of India’s freshwater reserves and over 40% of its hydropower potential. Without access to upstream metrics, India is exposed to heightened ecological, economic, and strategic risks, particularly in the Northeast, the report noted.
The Yarlung Tsangpo originates near Mount Kailash in western Tibet and flows across the length of southern Tibet before entering India through Arunachal Pradesh and then flows to Bangladesh before merging with the Ganges and emptying into the Bay of Bengal.
Actually China had already decided to take control over the flow of the Yarlung Tsangpo even before India revoked the IWT. On Jan 6, 2025, it announced its approval of the decision to start the construction of the world’s largest hydroelectric dam on it, located strategically near the Indian border.
China claims that the $137 billion (Rs 11.9 lakh crore) project had undergone rigorous scientific assessments and will not harm downstream countries. Still, its proximity to India’s northeastern frontier — already a zone of territorial tension and a known seismically active zone — deepens geopolitical anxieties. Gao’s remarks confirm that.
The potential for catastrophe is not abstract. Experts warn that if the dam fails — due to seismic activity, structural flaws, or sabotage — the deluge could devastate Arunachal Pradesh and Assam in minutes. And even in normal operations, China’s control over water flow could wreak havoc downstream. By releasing excess water during the monsoon, Beijing could amplify already severe flooding in India’s northeastern states, where 40% of the land is flood-prone. Noted another businesstoday.in report May 31.