(TibetanReview.net, May05’25) – While being hawkish on Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and Beijing’s India-border and South China Sea claims, most of the Chinese citizens oppose the use of force to unify with Taiwan under any circumstances, reported the scmp.com May 1, citing a joint study by a think tank and a university in the USA. China’s long-standing policy is to take back Taiwan eventually, including by force, if necessary, with the call for doing so growing particularly strident in recent years.
The study, designed jointly by the Atlanta-based Carter Center and Emory University, found that 55.1% of respondents agreed or somewhat agreed with the statement that “the Taiwan problem should not be resolved using force under any circumstances”, while 24.5% disagreed or somewhat disagreed. A fifth of respondents were neutral, the report said.
Some US officials, including former Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson, have suggested that China may invade Taiwan in 2027, as it marks the 100th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). President Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA to be fully modernized by 2027, potentially giving China the military capability to invade. So far, China’s the red line for doing so is if Taiwan formally declares independence.
The study’s finding on the Chinese citizens’ attitude towards Taiwan is in sharp contrast with that towards Russian’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s territorial claims or disputes with India and the South China Sea countries.
The study has found that 66.1% saw it to be in China’s national interest to support Russia’s actions in Ukraine, with 5.8% disagreeing and 28.2% feeling neutral.
Besides, on India, 79.7% of respondents were found to support maintaining Beijing’s border claims with the South Asian country even at the risk of conflict, with the rest, about a fifth, preferring a more diplomatic approach.
Likewise, 81.1% were found to believe that the Philippines and Vietnam should respect China’s sovereignty claims over the South China Sea and cease their objections, regardless of what international law says.
The online study of 2,211 Chinese citizens aged 18 and 54 was stated to have been conducted between Sep 1 and 25 by survey company Dynata. The sample was designed to reflect the demographic distribution of the country’s internet-using population.
Surveys of Chinese citizen views on foreign policy are rare, and experts are stated to have voiced concern that respondents may hold back in conveying their true beliefs for fear of government retaliation.
Exact percentages in the Apr 30 survey should be interpreted cautiously, Rory Truex, a political scientist at Princeton University, who was not involved in the study., has said. But he believed the results clearly indicated there may be significant public opposition to a Taiwan takeover by Beijing.
Beijing sees Taiwan as a breakaway province, to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to arming it. Leaders of Taiwan’s Democratic Progression Party, which currently holds the presidency, maintains that the island is already a country. Its main opposition is the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT), which ruled China from 1927 to 1949, after the overthrow pf the Qing dynasty in 1912, until it was ousted by the Communist revolution in 1949. The KMT government fled to Taiwan, from where it aimed to liberate the mainland with ever diminishing hope.
The report noted that despite results showing high opposition to the use of force, the Apr 30 survey also revealed that many Chinese may accept eventual military action. After all, only 18.1% of respondents said there was “no military action needed” when asked how long China should wait to resolve the Taiwan issue before using force.
Given the option of waiting for one, five, 10, 25 or more than 25 years, the most common response – selected by 33.5% – was “within five years”, the report said.
The report noted that an earlier survey, conducted in two waves between late 2020 and early 2021 and later published in the Journal of Contemporary China, found that a slim majority of Chinese citizens – 55% – backed a full-scale war to achieve unification with Taiwan.
That result was stated to have come alongside similar levels of support for military coercion short of war (58%), economic sanctions (57%) and maintaining the status quo (55%).